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电力过剩时代或许已到来:供需两弱

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月20日 04:09:26
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(  即)(便)(用)(电)(量)(增)(速)(出)(现)(小)(幅)(上)(升)(,仍)(然)(无)(法)(让)(电)(力)(企)(业)(感)(到)(轻)(松)(。
  3月)(10日)(,中)(电)(联)(发)(布)(《中)(国)(电)(力)(工)(业)(现)(状)(与)(展)(望)(》报)(告)(,对)(2015年)(电)(力)(工)(业)(发)(展)(和)(全)(国)(电)(力)(供)(需)(做)(出)(分)(析)(和)(预)(测)(。报)(告)(预)(测)(,2015年)(全)(国)(电)(力)(供)(需)(继)(续)(总)(体)(宽)(松)(,预)(计)(全)(年)(社)(会)(用)(电)(量)(5.77万)(亿)(千)(瓦)(时)(、同)(比)(增)(长)(4.5%左)(右)(;与)(此)(同)(时)(,全)(年)(发)(电)(设)(备)(利)(用)(小)(时)(4130小)(时)(左)(右)(,其)(中)(火)(电)(设)(备)(利)(用)(小)(时)(4650小)(时)(左)(右)(,可)(能)(再)(创)(新)(低)(。
  如)(果)(对)(比)(2014年)(全)(社)(会)(用)(电)(量)(同)(比)(增)(速)(的)(3.8%,全)(国)(6000千)(瓦)(及)(以)(上)(电)(厂)(发)(电)(设)(备)(平)(均)(利)(用)(小)(时)(为)(4286小)(时)(,处)(于)(历)(史)(低)(位)(。中)(电)(联)(的)(这)(份)(报)(告)(上)(调)(了)(2015年)(的)(用)(电)(增)(速)(,却)(继)(续)(下)(调)(发)(电)(设)(备)(平)(均)(利)(用)(小)(时)(,这)(传)(递)(出)(了)(一)(个)(强)(烈)(的)(信)(号)(,电)(力)(行)(业)(在)(2015年)(将)(进)(行)(一)(场)(深)(入)(的)(调)(整)(。
  供)(需)(两)(弱)(
  社)(会)(用)(电)(量)(从)(2013年)(的)(7.6%到)(2014年)(的)(3.8%,电)(厂)(发)(电)(设)(备)(平)(均)(利)(用)(小)(时)(从)(4521小)(时)(到)(4286小)(时)(,火)(电)(设)(备)(平)(均)(利)(用)(小)(时)(从)(5020小)(时)(到)(4706小)(时)(,这)(些)(数)(字)(的)(变)(化)(将)(用)(电)(形)(势)(描)(绘)(得)(无)(比)(清)(晰)(。
  根)(据)(中)(电)(联)(2015年)(2月)(发)(布)(的)(《2014年)(电)(力)(工)(业)(运)(行)(简)(况)(》,2014年)(全)(国)(电)(力)(消)(费)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(,全)(社)(会)(用)(电)(量)(55233亿)(千)(瓦)(时)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(3.8%,但)(比)(上)(年)(回)(落)(3.8个)(百)(分)(点)(;全)(口)(径)(发)(电)(量)(55459亿)(千)(瓦)(时)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(3.6%,比)(上)(年)(回)(落)(4.1个)(百)(分)(点)(;截)(至)(2014年)(底)(,全)(国)(发)(电)(装)(机)(容)(量)(13.60亿)(千)(瓦)(,比)(上)(年)(增)(长)(8.7%;全)(年)(发)(电)(设)(备)(平)(均)(利)(用)(小)(时)(数)(同)(比)(下)(降)(235小)(时)(;受)(电)(力)(消)(费)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(和)(水)(电)(发)(电)(量)(快)(速)(增)(长)(等)(因)(素)(影)(响)(,全)(年)(火)(电)(设)(备)(平)(均)(利)(用)(小)(时)(数)(同)(比)(下)(降)(314小)(时)(,为)(4706小)(时)(。
  中)(电)(联)(去)(年)(多)(次)(下)(调)(了)(用)(电)(量)(的)(预)(测)(数)(据)(,从)(2014年)(年)(初)(预)(计)(的)(7%到)(年)(中)(的)(6%,再)(到)(11月)(初)(预)(计)(的)(3.5%,最)(后)(定)(格)(在)(3.8%。7%到)(年)(中)(的)(6%的)(改)(变)(用)(了)(近)(半)(年)(时)(间)(,从)(6%到)(3.5%用)(了)(3个)(月)(,用)(电)(量)(一)(直)(是)(经)(济)(运)(行)(形)(势)(的)(“晴)(雨)(表)(”,作)(为)(与)(工)(业)(生)(产)(密)(切)(相)(关)(的)(用)(电)(量)(,这)(一)(数)(据)(的)(变)(化)(,与)(整)(体)(的)(工)(业)(形)(势)(一)(致)(性)(较)(高)(。
  而)(从)(发)(电)(利)(用)(小)(时)(数)(来)(看)(,根)(据)(日)(前)(国)(家)(能)(源)(局)(发)(布)(的)(行)(业)(快)(报)(统)(计)(称)(,2014年)(全)(国)(6000千)(瓦)(及)(以)(上)(电)(厂)(发)(电)(设)(备)(平)(均)(利)(用)(小)(时)(为)(4286小)(时)(,同)(比)(减)(少)(235小)(时)(,是)(1978年)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(水)(平)(。
  其)(中)(,火)(电)(、核)(电)(和)(风)(电)(的)(发)(电)(设)(备)(平)(均)(利)(用)(小)(时)(数)(的)(骤)(减)(是)(导)(致)(这)(一)(数)(字)(明)(显)(下)(滑)(的)(主)(要)(因)(素)(。根)(据)(快)(报)(统)(计)(数)(据)(,2014年)(底)(全)(国)(火)(电)(装)(机)(容)(量)(9.2亿)(千)(瓦)(,设)(备)(平)(均)(利)(用)(小)(时)(4706小)(时)(,同)(比)(减)(少)(314小)(时)(,是)(1978年)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(水)(平)(;2014年)(底)(全)(国)(核)(电)(装)(机)(容)(量)(1988万)(千)(瓦)(,设)(备)(平)(均)(利)(用)(小)(时)(7489小)(时)(,同)(比)(减)(少)(385小)(时)(;2014年)(底)(全)(国)(并)(网)(风)(电)(装)(机)(容)(量)(9581万)(千)(瓦)(,设)(备)(平)(均)(利)(用)(小)(时)(1905小)(时)(,同)(比)(减)(少)(120小)(时)(。
  对)(此)(,国)(家)(能)(源)(局)(给)(出)(的)(分)(析)(认)(为)(,导)(致)(发)(电)(设)(备)(利)(用)(小)(时)(数)(历)(史)(新)(低)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(是)(“受)(电)(力)(需)(求)(增)(长)(放)(缓)(、新)(能)(源)(装)(机)(比)(重)(不)(断)(提)(高)(等)(因)(素)(影)(响)(”。
  对)(于)(这)(两)(组)(数)(据)(的)(变)(化)(,业)(界)(有)(分)(析)(人)(士)(认)(为)(,电)(力)(过)(剩)(时)(代)(或)(许)(已)(经)(到)(来)(。
  “稳)(增)(长)(”VS“十)(二)(五)(”
  如)(果)(说)(对)(2014年)(的)(电)(力)(数)(据)(有)(些)(“意)(外)(”,那)(么)(2015年)(的)(电)(力)(行)(业)(和)(供)(需)(形)(势)(将)(会)(何)(去)(何)(从)(?
  中)(电)(联)(预)(测)(,预)(计)(2015年)(全)(国)(基)(建)(新)(增)(发)(电)(装)(机)(容)(量)(1亿)(千)(瓦)(左)(右)(,其)(中)(,煤)(电)(3800万)(千)(瓦)(、气)(电)(600万)(千)(瓦)(、非)(化)(石)(能)(源)(发)(电)(5300万)(千)(瓦)(左)(右)(,非)(化)(石)(能)(源)(新)(增)(装)(机)(中)(,水)(电)(1400万)(千)(瓦)(、核)(电)(876万)(千)(瓦)(、并)(网)(风)(电)(1900万)(千)(瓦)(、并)(网)(太)(阳)(能)(发)(电)(1000万)(千)(瓦)(、并)(网)(生)(物)(质)(发)(电)(100万)(千)(瓦)(左)(右)(。
  同)(时)(,预)(计)(全)(年)(发)(电)(设)(备)(利)(用)(小)(时)(4130小)(时)(左)(右)(,其)(中)(火)(电)(设)(备)(利)(用)(小)(时)(4650小)(时)(左)(右)(,可)(能)(再)(创)(新)(低)(。“发)(电)(设)(备)(利)(用)(小)(时)(从)(4286小)(时)(下)(降)(到)(4130小)(时)(左)(右)(,火)(电)(从)(4706小)(时)(降)(到)(4650小)(时)(左)(右)(,再)(创)(新)(低)(说)(明)(今)(年)(全)(国)(用)(电)(可)(能)(偏)(于)(饱)(和)(。”一)(位)(长)(期)(从)(事)(电)(力)(行)(业)(分)(析)(的)(人)(士)(对)(经)(济)(观)(察)(报)(表)(示)(。
  对)(于)(电)(力)(行)(业)(而)(言)(,如)(果)(全)(年)(的)(设)(备)(利)(用)(小)(时)(数)(在)(5500小)(时)(以)(上)(表)(明)(该)(地)(区)(用)(电)(趋)(紧)(,5000小)(时)(为)(用)(电)(相)(对)(平)(稳)(,低)(于)(4500小)(时)(,则)(说)(明)(用)(电)(情)(况)(相)(对)(饱)(和)(,一)(般)(无)(需)(新)(增)(装)(机)(。
  而)(对)(于)(最)(为)(主)(要)(的)(“指)(标)(”之)(一)(,今)(年)(的)(全)(国)(电)(力)(供)(需)(情)(况)(,中)(电)(联)(的)(预)(测)(是)(,2015年)(全)(国)(电)(力)(供)(需)(继)(续)(总)(体)(宽)(松)(,东)(北)(和)(西)(北)(区)(域)(电)(力)(供)(应)(能)(力)(仍)(然)(剩)(余)(较)(多)(,华)(东)(、华)(中)(和)(南)(方)(区)(域)(电)(力)(供)(需)(平)(衡)(,各)(区)(域)(内)(均)(有)(部)(分)(省)(份)(电)(力)(供)(应)(能)(力)(盈)(余)(,华)(北)(区)(域)(电)(力)(供)(需)(总)(体)(平)(衡)(,部)(分)(地)(区)(偏)(紧)(。“综)(合)(判)(断)(,预)(计)(2015年)(电)(力)(消)(费)(增)(速)(将)(比)(2014年)(有)(一)(定)(回)(升)(,全)(年)(全)(社)(会)(用)(电)(量)(5.74-5.80万)(亿)(千)(瓦)(时)(、同)(比)(增)(长)(4.0%-5.0%,预)(期)(5.77万)(亿)(千)(瓦)(时)(、同)(比)(增)(长)(4.5%左)(右)(,其)(中)(,第)(一)(产)(业)(同)(比)(增)(长)(2.0%、第)(二)(产)(业)(增)(长)(3.5%、第)(三)(产)(业)(增)(长)(8.5%、城)(乡)(居)(民)(生)(活)(增)(长)(7.0%。”一)(位)(中)(电)(联)(规)(划)(与)(统)(计)(信)(息)(部)(相)(关)(负)(责)(人)(表)(示)(。
  中)(电)(联)(报)(告)(称)(,“2015年)(中)(央)(仍)(将)(出)(台)(一)(系)(列)(的)(稳)(增)(长)(措)(施)(,且)(改)(革)(红)(利)(逐)(步)(释)(放)(,这)(都)(有)(利)(于)(稳)(定)(电)(力)(消)(费)(增)(长)(;2014年)(对)(用)(电)(量)(增)(长)(产)(生)(抑)(制)(作)(用)(的)(还)(有)(气)(温)(因)(素)(,将)(对)(2015年)(用)(电)(量)(尤)(其)(是)(居)(民)(用)(电)(量)(增)(长)(有)(一)(定)(拉)(升)(作)(用)(;受)(经)(济)(转)(型)(驱)(动)(,信)(息)(消)(费)(等)(第)(三)(产)(业)(仍)(将)(保)(持)(快)(速)(增)(长)(势)(头)(。”
  与)(此)(同)(时)(,报)(告)(还)(认)(为)(,“部)(分)(地)(区)(为)(大)(气)(污)(染)(防)(治)(和)(节)(能)(减)(排)(而)(推)(行)(的)(电)(能)(替)(代)(客)(观)(上)(有)(利)(于)(促)(进)(电)(力)(消)(费)(增)(长)(;部)(分)(地)(方)(逐)(步)(推)(进)(的)(电)(力)(用)(户)(直)(接)(交)(易)(试)(点)(,降)(低)(了)(用)(户)(电)(价)(,企)(业)(生)(产)(成)(本)(下)(降)(,一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(促)(进)(电)(力)(消)(费)(。”“未)(来)(中)(国)(的)(节)(能)(减)(排)(和)(环)(境)(保)(护)(压)(力)(日)(益)(加)(大)(,2015年)(是)(中)(央)(政)(府)(实)(现)(十)(二)(五)(节)(能)(减)(排)(目)(标)(的)(最)(后)(一)(年)(,部)(分)(节)(能)(减)(排)(形)(势)(严)(峻)(的)(地)(区)(可)(能)(在)(一)(些)(时)(段)(对)(高)(耗)(能)(高)(排)(放)(行)(业)(采)(取)(限)(电)(限)(产)(等)(措)(施)(,这)(会)(对)(高)(耗)(能)(行)(业)(用)(电)(增)(长)(带)(来)(一)(定)(影)(响)(。”上)(述)(负)(责)(人)(表)(示)(。
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